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A new decision-making framework called Outcome-First Decisions has been launched as open-source, offering organizations a disciplined way to evaluate whether to keep, change, or kill ongoing initiatives based solely on their current outcomes. This approach aims to address the common problem of portfolio clutter caused by projects that continue consuming resources without delivering value.

The Outcome-First Decisions framework centers around a simple yet powerful question: given the current state and outcomes of an initiative, is it worth its ongoing cost? It introduces the Worth Filter, which forces decision-makers to focus on forward-looking results rather than past investments or emotional attachments. The framework produces three verdicts: keep, change, or kill, with a bias toward making kill decisions easier to justify.

Developed by Thorsten Meyer, the framework is designed to be provider-agnostic and runs locally on owned infrastructure, ensuring privacy and cost-effectiveness. It is licensed under AGPL-3.0, emphasizing openness and community collaboration. The method aims to help organizations avoid the trap of continuing dead projects that drain focus and capital, thereby freeing capacity for more valuable work.

While the framework promotes rigorous evaluation, experts caution that outcomes can be mismeasured or gamed, and emotional biases may still influence decisions. It does not replace judgment but provides a structured approach to facilitate difficult pruning choices.

Why Outcome-First Decisions Reshape Portfolio Management

This framework offers a systematic way to improve resource allocation by encouraging organizations to regularly prune initiatives that no longer produce valuable outcomes. It addresses a common organizational blind spot: the tendency to keep projects alive due to sunk costs or emotional attachment, which can lead to inefficiencies and opportunity costs. By making kill decisions more straightforward, organizations can become more agile and focused on high-impact work, ultimately improving overall performance and strategic alignment.

The Challenge of Maintaining Healthy Portfolios

Many organizations struggle with long tail of ongoing projects that neither succeed nor end, often due to emotional investment, sunk costs, or organizational inertia. Traditional decision-making processes tend to focus on starting new initiatives rather than systematically pruning existing ones. The concept of outcome-based evaluation has gained traction as a way to address this issue, but practical tools have been limited until now.

The release of the Outcome-First Decisions framework builds on earlier discussions about the importance of disciplined portfolio management and the need for transparent, outcome-focused evaluation methods. Its open-source nature aims to foster community adoption and iterative improvement.

“The hardest decision in any portfolio isn’t what to start. It’s what to stop.”

— Thorsten Meyer

Limitations and Risks of Outcome-First Evaluation

While the framework is designed to improve decision-making, concerns remain about accurately measuring outcomes and avoiding gaming the system. It is unclear how well the Worth Filter performs in complex or slow-start projects, and whether organizations will adopt it consistently. The framework also cannot replace the emotional and cultural factors influencing decisions, which may hinder its effectiveness.

Next Steps for Adoption and Refinement

Organizations interested in Outcome-First Decisions can access the open-source framework on GitHub and begin applying it to their portfolios. Further development and case studies are expected to emerge, providing insights into best practices and potential pitfalls. Industry groups may also incorporate the framework into broader portfolio management standards, encouraging more disciplined pruning practices across sectors.

Key Questions

How does Outcome-First Decisions differ from traditional portfolio reviews?

It emphasizes evaluating initiatives based solely on their current outcomes and forward-looking value, rather than past investments or emotional attachment, and promotes easier kill decisions.

Can the framework be applied to all types of projects?

While designed to be provider-agnostic, its effectiveness depends on accurately measuring outcomes, which may vary across project types. Slow-start or long-term projects may require careful outcome assessment.

Is this framework suitable for large organizations?

Yes, especially as it is designed to run locally and be integrated into existing decision cycles, helping large portfolios stay lean and focused.

What are the main challenges in implementing Outcome-First Decisions?

Accurately measuring outcomes, overcoming emotional biases, and ensuring consistent application across teams are key challenges.

Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com