🔍 Read the full analysis: Singapore Layoffs Near A Six-Year High: Examining The AI Fears Around Graduate Jobs on ThorstenMeyerAI.com
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TL;DR
Singapore reported 4,800 retrenchments in the third quarter of 2026, a preliminary figure and the highest quarterly total since the end of 2020. The data attributes layoffs mainly to business reorganisation, not specifically to AI; meanwhile, graduates are finding permanent work less often, and the scale of AI-related job losses remains uncertain.
Singapore recorded 4,800 retrenchments in the third quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly total since late 2020, according to preliminary figures released by the Ministry of Manpower on October 30. The rise comes as graduates face weaker employment outcomes, but the available data identifies business reorganisation as the main stated driver of layoffs—not artificial intelligence.
The Q3 total was up from 4,620 in Q2 and 3,670 in the same quarter a year earlier. The last higher quarterly count was 5,640 in Q4 2020, during the pandemic. The retrenchment rate, which measures layoffs per 1,000 employees, remained at 2.0. Services accounted for about 4,000 of the Q3 layoffs, manufacturing for 700 and construction for 100, according to the advance release.
The figures do not point to a broad contraction in employment. Total employment grew by 27,700 during the quarter, more than twice the increase recorded in Q2, and the overall unemployment rate was 2.0% in September. At the same time, the resident unemployment rate was 3.0% and the citizen rate 3.1%. The share of firms expecting to retrench rose from 2.8% in August to 3.1% in September, even as the share planning to hire increased from 30.5% to 42.3%.
The Ministry of Manpower said retrenchments remained elevated in selected outward-oriented sectors, including information and communications, financial services and manufacturing. It said business reorganisation continued to be the main driver. Singapore’s reported layoff statistics do not have a separate category for AI-related job cuts. In an April survey cited by the source, 6.2% of firms that had adopted AI said they had reduced headcount after adopting it.
Infographic 01 · The numbers
Singapore's layoffs climb to a near six-year high
Retrenchments have risen in each of the last five quarters while employment kept growing. The official reason is restructuring.
Retrenchments per quarter
Number of employees laid off · selected quarters · rounded to the nearest 10
3Q 2026 by sector
Main driver: business reorganisation · elevated in information and communications, financial services, manufacturing
Mixed signals for the next quarter
Share of firms, August → September 2026
- Expect to hire in the next 3 months30.5% → 42.3%
- Expect to raise wages16.9% → 19.9%
- Expect to retrench2.8% → 3.1%MOM: “emerging weaknesses … that warrant close monitoring”
The economy grew 5.9% year on year in 2Q 2026 (MTI). Rising layoffs in a growing economy point to restructuring rather than a collapse in demand. The 3Q figures are preliminary; the full report follows in mid-December 2026.
Sources: MOM Labour Market Advance Release 3Q 2026, 30 Oct 2026; MOM Labour Market Report 2Q 2026, 21 Sep 2026; MOM Labour Market Report 1Q 2021 (4Q 2020 figure).
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Layoffs Rise as Hiring Continues
The figures show a labour market moving in different directions: employers are still adding jobs overall, while retrenchments are rising in some sectors. The government described the combination of higher layoffs and increased layoff intentions as a sign of emerging weaknesses in parts of the labour market that need monitoring. The economy grew 5.9% year on year in Q2, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry, underscoring that higher layoffs are occurring alongside growth rather than a reported economy-wide downturn.
For workers, the distinction between layoffs and slower hiring matters. The source’s account of Q2 data says 3,950 of 4,620 retrenched workers—about 85%—were professionals, managers, executives or technicians. Workers under 30 had the lowest layoff rate among age groups. That points to experienced professionals bearing much of the direct impact, while younger people may be more exposed to a tougher entry-level job market.
At Singapore’s six public universities, 83.4% of job-seeking 2025 graduates had found work within six months, down from 87.1%. The share in full-time permanent jobs fell to 74.4% from 79.4%; arts, design and media graduates recorded a 50% employment rate in the figures provided. These outcomes do not establish that AI caused the decline, but they make concerns about the first rung of the career ladder more immediate for students and employers.
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Graduate Outcomes and Regional Signals
The Q3 Ministry of Manpower release is an advance, preliminary report. A fuller labour market report, including sector detail and re-entry rates, is expected in mid-December. The latest detailed breakdown of who was retrenched and why is from Q2, so it should not be treated as a complete profile of those affected in Q3. In that Q2 data, restructuring was the leading reason and PMETs made up most retrenched workers.
The issue extends beyond Singapore. The International Labour Organization estimates about 80 million workers in Southeast Asia are in jobs with some exposure to generative AI, but says it has seen no evidence so far of large-scale job losses. The source reports that youth employment in highly exposed jobs fell faster than overall employment in the Philippines and Thailand. Exposure to AI, however, does not by itself show that a job was eliminated because of AI.
Singapore’s political leaders have warned about possible pressure on entry-level work. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said the “bottom rung of the career ladder” may break. Minister of State Foo Cexiang said Singapore must act “quite quickly,” warning that elsewhere “the cliff can be quite sharp.” These are concerns about potential impacts, not confirmation that AI has already caused widespread graduate job losses.
““The bottom rung of the career ladder” may break.”
— Prime Minister Lawrence Wong
AI’s Role Remains Unmeasured
The preliminary Q3 figures do not identify how many layoffs were caused by AI. The ministry’s stated leading reason is business reorganisation, and its statistics do not include an AI category. The April finding that 6.2% of AI-adopting firms reported cutting headcount after adoption is a survey response; by itself, it does not establish that AI caused each reduction or show how many workers were affected.
It is also not yet clear whether the increase in retrenchments will continue, how many affected workers will find new jobs, or whether Q3 layoffs were concentrated in the same roles and age groups as Q2. The graduate employment figures describe outcomes, but do not identify AI as the cause of the decline. The full report due in December should provide additional labour-market detail, though the source does not say it will quantify AI’s specific contribution.
December Report to Add Detail
The next scheduled milestone is the Ministry of Manpower’s full Q3 labour market report in mid-December. It is expected to add sector detail and information on re-entry rates for retrenched workers. Those figures can clarify where layoffs occurred and how quickly affected workers returned to employment, though an AI-specific cause may remain unmeasured.
For now, the key indicators to watch are whether retrenchments keep rising, whether planned hiring translates into actual employment growth, and whether graduate full-time permanent employment recovers. Until more detailed data is released, the firmest conclusion is that layoffs have reached a near six-year high while overall employment is still growing—and that the connection between AI and these changes has not been established by the reported figures.
Key Questions
How many people were retrenched in Singapore in Q3 2026?
The preliminary Ministry of Manpower figure is 4,800, up from 4,620 in Q2 2026. It is the highest quarterly total since Q4 2020, when the count was 5,640.
Does the data show that AI caused the layoffs?
No. The ministry said business reorganisation was the main driver, and its layoff statistics do not include a separate AI category. The available figures do not establish how many job cuts, if any, were directly caused by AI.
Are young workers the main group being laid off?
The source’s detailed Q2 figures say professionals, managers, executives and technicians accounted for about 85% of retrenchments, while workers under 30 had the lowest layoff rate among age groups. The Q3 release does not provide a comparable age breakdown.
Are Singapore’s graduates finding jobs?
Among job-seeking graduates from Singapore’s six public universities in 2025, 83.4% found work within six months, down from 87.1%. Full-time permanent employment also declined, to 74.4% from 79.4%, in the figures cited by the source.
When will more detailed labour market figures be released?
The Ministry of Manpower’s full Q3 report is expected in mid-December 2026. The advance release published October 30 is preliminary.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
